Well that has to be the worst start to a year I’ve ever had!
As you are all fully aware since December we have had a downturn in results.
The December highlight was on boxing day where Creeper provided winner after winner.
January has been for want of a better word disappointing. I say disappointing and not shocking because although we are in minus figures for the month we have had so many second places and although I certainly don’t pick my horses based on luck, we certainly haven’t had our fair share this month.
This month had seen us record our longest ever losing run, I couldn’t believe it. We did then have a few winners to ease the pressure but nowhere near enough by the middle of the month to give me confidence in turning a profit this month.
I suspect with the January frost causing a number of courses being abandoned that the ground is just too hard for some of our horses. Even on the AW I noticed a lot of slower times recorded for winning times.
I’m by no means making excuses, this is unfortunate and has certainly contributed to such poor results this month.
I’m hoping February we can turn it around quickly and get back to what we are used to, which is winning ways. February has started a lot better with a 3.31 point Profit so far, but because of the weather there has been a few instances of No selections.
I have had a lot of positive emails from members sticking with me, one or two have lost their minds and can’t believe all the second places. As I told them we will turn it around as I have full confidence in the system.
P.S. When I first went live I had a number of queries regarding having 2 selections in some races which was a result of scanning at both 10pm and 7am. I have been monitoring the results of those races and decided that I will not be adding the second selection at 7am in future. Tier 1 members still need to check after 7am as I may still add further selections that didn’t qualify at 10pm.
So here are the results for January 2019. I recorded my longest losing run of 28 selections this month. So what the dickens went wrong for us?
Straight away you can see my S\R had an almighty throwback to 14.36%. We was about 10 winners shy of a usual month. Couple that with my average winning odds plummeting to just 4.85 BSP. You can see this has culminated in a loss of 62.19% points.
This is fine margins guys… If my strike rate had been just 3% higher (17.36%) and the average odds were 6.85 BSP (both still much lower than my average across the year) we would have posted a profit of over 20 points. Any one can see from the results file on the results page that we had A LOT of 2nd places we had (38 2nd places and 18 3rd places.) but what I ask is that you sleep on any belligerence before throwing criticism my way. Members who have been with me Since the FREE trial started are completely calm and I haven’t heard a peep from them, and I understand the criticism from new members. I am sure this is just a blip andFeb has already started pretty well under the circumstances. Hold tight guys, periods like this are the difference between making it or failing.
January 1st-31st results are as follows.
- Selections: 188
- Losers: 161
- Winners: 27
- Average Winning Odds 4.85 BSP
- Average Overall Odds: 11.35 BSP
- Strike Rate: 14.36%
- Points Profit/Loss: -62.19 Points (-5% Betfair Commission Included)